ELECTRIC AUTONOMOUS TRUCKING FUTURE OF HAULAGE SERVICES

Currently, only battery-electric trucks are available. While they have a lot going for them, the range is not one of those things. These trucks are in our customer fleets right now, and they love them.

Their economy is fantastic. They are paying about 20 cents per mile. Diesel (for a Cascadia Class-8) is 57 cents per mile. Electric is 35% of the cost, these days of eye-watering diesel costs (currently $5.72/gal). The drivers LOVE them. They are quick and easy to drive (no gears to shift, few gauges to look at). They are quiet and comfortable. The acceleration is great, and they don’t have so many problems with cars always cutting in front of them in heavy freeway traffic. They don’t need to worry about downhill braking (in fact, they LOVE going downhill, since they recover so much energy).

But the range does not make these trucks suitable for long-haul or all-day work. This limits their appeal.

We have been VERY successful with our battery-electric school bus, which meets the needs of 99% of our district’s routes (even without charging mid-day). Almost no busses ever go more than 138 miles per day. We spend this battery specifically to meet this exact range specification. Most routes can fully charge in 12 hours with 240 volts at 50 amps (commonly available at a bus depot), so they don’t need a big expensive 400/800-volt fast charger (though they can use one, of course).

But the future of long-haul Over-The-Road (OTR) trucking (and passenger busses) is (sigh) fuel cells (which is still an electric truck/bus). Batteries are simply too heavy to scale up to the 1000+ mile/day range. Hydrogen is light, and our customers are weight sensitive.

So, by 2050 (the regulatory deadline), expect to see H2 stations at most of America’s 2200 truck stops. This will have the effect of actually making HFC cars possible (though not very practical, of course). The hydrogen nuts can finally have their five-minute fill-ups. It’s gonna happen, folks. Hydrogen is inevitable by 2050. We simply cannot meet the deadline AND the weight requirements with batteries, and no miracle batteries are on the horizon.

And, FWIW, many future trucks will need a range of 2000 miles a day, because they will not have drivers. They will drive at freeway speeds from depot to depot, where they drop their load, refuel, grab another load, and continue, 24–7, never stopping. This is the future of OTR (though not local delivery) and it absolutely cannot be accomplished without hydrogen (though tractor-swapping is an option for autonomous battery tractors such as this one):

So stop making fun of the hydrogen nuts! In 27 years, they can have their hydrogen! They can drive their 28-year-old Chevy Surburban up to their local Toyota dealer and buy a Miari and go to a gas station (well, truck stop) for their energy because they can’t stand the thought of charging at home every night and are too impatient for a 20-minute fast charge